Prediction of chronicity in psychiatric patients
A. D. Pokorny, J. Thornby, H. B. Kaplan and D. Ball
In order to determine the best combination of variables for predicting
which patients would be released from state mental hospitals and which
would be retained, the 1,500 patients examined in the course of a
cross-sectional survey of the residental population of Texas state mental
hospitals in 1966 were followed up in 1971. Eighteen variables were
selected for discriminant analysis, comparing the patients nerver released
from the hospital with those known to be current extrainstitutional
residents. The stepwise program selected four variables: (1) length of
prior stay; (2) relatives' attitudes toward release; (3) social adequacy;
and (4) conceptual disorganization. Applying this model to the study
groups, 79% were correctly classified with regard to their in hospitals/not
in hospital status, suggesting that early identification of chronicity in
future studies is feasible.
