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Prediction of Adult Schizophrenia Using Childhood Information

Ernest Hartmann, MD; Eva Milofsky, MS; George Vaillant, MD; Molly Oldfield, EdM; Roberta Falke; Charles Ducey, PhD

Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1984;41(11):1050-1056.

Abstract
• Forty years ago, Glueck and Glueck studied a group of Boston inner city children to discover factors relating to delinquency. Detailed information was obtained on 1,000 boys aged 10 to 17 years, 500 "delinquents" and 500 "nondelinquent controls." In follow-up studies of this group, we have found that 24 have a diagnosis of adult schizophrenia. We matched these 24 with 48, who had a nonschizophrenic outcome, on the basis of IQ, ethnicity, age at interview, and original Glueck grouping (delinquent or control). The 72 childhood records were then examined on a blind basis by independent raters looking for predetermined "Indicators of vulnerability to schizophrenia." The total indicator scores were able to differentiate schizophrenic outcome from nonschizophrenic outcome at highly significant levels. A number of the individual indicators were likewise able to predict outcome. Prediction was improved when subjects with the lowest IQs(<85) were excluded from consideration.

Author Affiliations
From the Department of Psychiatry, Tufts University School of Medicine, and the Sleep Research Laboratory, West-Ros-Park Mental Health Center at the Lemuel Shattuck Hospital (Dr Hartmann, Mss Oldfield and Falke), and Harvard Medical School (Ms Milofsky and Dr Vaillant), Boston; and Cambridge (Mass) Hospital (Dr Ducey).

Footnotes
Accepted for publication Jan 27, 1984.

Reprint requests to 170 Morton St, Jamaica Plain, MA 02130 (Dr Hartmann).

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