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Results From the Dunedin Study

Louise Arseneault, PhD; Terrie E. Moffitt, PhD; Avshalom Caspi, PhD; Pamela J. Taylor, FRCPsych; Phil A. Silva, PhD

Arch Gen Psychiatry. 2000;57:979-986.

Background  We report on mental disorders and violence for a birth cohort of young adults, regardless of their contact with the health or justice systems.

Methods  We studied 961 young adults who constituted 94% of a total-city birth cohort in New Zealand, April 1, 1972, through March 31, 1973. Past-year prevalence of mental disorders was measured using standardized DSM-III-R interviews. Past-year violence was measured using self-reports of criminal offending and a search of official conviction records. We also tested whether substance use before the violent offense, adolescent excessive perceptions of threat, and a juvenile history of conduct disorder accounted for the link between mental disorders and violence.

Results  Individuals meeting diagnostic criteria for alcohol dependence, marijuana dependence, and schizophrenia-spectrum disorder were 1.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-3.5), 3.8 (95% CI, 2.2-6.8), and 2.5 (95% CI, 1.1-5.7) times, respectively, more likely than control subjects to be violent. Persons with at least 1 of these 3 disorders constituted one fifth of the sample, but they accounted for half of the sample's violent crimes (10% of violence risk was uniquely attributable to schizophrenia-spectrum disorder). Among alcohol-dependent individuals, violence was best explained by substance use before the offense; among marijuana-dependent individuals, by a juvenile history of conduct disorder; and among individuals with schizophrenia-spectrum disorder, by excessive perceptions of threat and a history of conduct disorder.

Conclusions  In the age group committing most violent incidents, individuals with mental disorders account for a considerable amount of violence in the community. Different mental disorders are linked to violence via different core explanations, suggesting multiple-targeted prevention strategies.

From the Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre (Drs Arseneault, Moffitt, and Caspi) and the Department of Forensic Psychiatry (Dr Taylor), Institute of Psychiatry, University of London, London, England; the Department of Psychology, University of Wisconsin, Madison (Drs Moffitt and Caspi); and the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Unit, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand (Dr Silva).

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