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Daniel S. Nagin, PhD; Richard E. Tremblay, PhD

Arch Gen Psychiatry. 2001;58:389-394.

Background  In a prior study, we identified 4 groups following distinct developmental courses, or trajectories, of physical aggression in 1037 boys from 6 to 15 years of age in a high-risk population sample from Montréal, Québec. Two were trajectories of high aggression, a persistently high group and a high but declining group. The other 2 trajectories were a low group and a moderate declining group. This study identified early predictors of physical aggression trajectories from ages 6 to 15 years.

Methods  In this study, logistic regression analysis was used to identify parental and child characteristics that distinguished trajectory group membership.

Results  For boys displaying high hyperactivity and high opposition in kindergarten, the odds of membership in the 2 high aggression groups were increased by factors of 3.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0-4.3) and 2.7 (95% CI, 1.9-3.8), respectively, compared with boys without these risks. Counterpart odds ratios for the risk factors of mothers' teen-onset of parenthood and low educational attainment were 1.6 (95% CI, 1.1-2.2) and 1.8 (95% CI, 1.3-2.4), respectively. Only the maternal characteristics distinguished between the trajectory of persistently physical high aggression and the trajectory starting high but subsequently declining. For the 2 maternal risk factors combined, the odds ratio of persisting in high level physical aggression was 9.4 (95% CI, 2.9-30.4).

Conclusions  Kindergarten boys displaying high levels of opposition and hyperactivity are at high risk of persistent physical aggression. However, among kindergarten boys who display high levels of physical aggression, only mothers' low educational level and teenage onset of childbearing distinguish those who persist in high levels of physical aggression.

From H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pa (Dr Nagin); and Research Unit on Children's Psychosocial Maladjustment, University of Montréal, Montréal, Québec (Dr Tremblay).

Corresponding author and reprints: Daniel S. Nagin, PhD, 2105 Hamburg Hall, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (e-mail: dn03{at}andrew.cmu.edu).

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