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Parental and Early Childhood Predictors of Persistent Physical Aggression in Boys From Kindergarten to High School
Daniel S. Nagin, PhD;
Richard E. Tremblay, PhD
Arch Gen Psychiatry. 2001;58:389-394.
Background In a prior study, we identified 4 groups following distinct developmental
courses, or trajectories, of physical aggression in 1037 boys from 6 to 15
years of age in a high-risk population sample from Montréal, Québec.
Two were trajectories of high aggression, a persistently high group and a
high but declining group. The other 2 trajectories were a low group and a
moderate declining group. This study identified early predictors of physical
aggression trajectories from ages 6 to 15 years.
Methods In this study, logistic regression analysis was used to identify parental
and child characteristics that distinguished trajectory group membership.
Results For boys displaying high hyperactivity and high opposition in kindergarten,
the odds of membership in the 2 high aggression groups were increased by factors
of 3.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0-4.3) and 2.7 (95% CI, 1.9-3.8),
respectively, compared with boys without these risks. Counterpart odds ratios
for the risk factors of mothers' teen-onset of parenthood and low educational
attainment were 1.6 (95% CI, 1.1-2.2) and 1.8 (95% CI, 1.3-2.4), respectively.
Only the maternal characteristics distinguished between the trajectory of
persistently physical high aggression and the trajectory starting high but
subsequently declining. For the 2 maternal risk factors combined, the odds
ratio of persisting in high level physical aggression was 9.4 (95% CI, 2.9-30.4).
Conclusions Kindergarten boys displaying high levels of opposition and hyperactivity
are at high risk of persistent physical aggression. However, among kindergarten
boys who display high levels of physical aggression, only mothers' low educational
level and teenage onset of childbearing distinguish those who persist in high
levels of physical aggression.
From H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie
Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pa (Dr Nagin); and Research Unit on Children's
Psychosocial Maladjustment, University of Montréal, Montréal,
Québec (Dr Tremblay).
Corresponding author and reprints: Daniel S. Nagin, PhD, 2105 Hamburg
Hall, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (e-mail: dn03{at}andrew.cmu.edu).
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